I'm thinking it has a lot to do with the semiconductor shortage..... for now anyway.
The through-hole version averages around 90 cents from Mouser, which is still higher than normal, but the majority of them are out of stock. The SMD version, on the other hand starts at around 20 cents.
I expect things will get a little better eventually but we're definitely in the other direction in the long run.
Worse case scenario folks are just going to eventually have to embrace SMD... This really is the answer. There's a stigma surrounding it because I think a lot of builders believe it's scary or more difficult, but that's how a beginner feels looking at any PCB or electronic component.
Unless a person has a medical reason (eyesight, hand tremors, etc) SMD is no harder to work with than through-hole components, in fact it can be much quicker to assemble since you don't have to form or clip any leads. I'd use your analogy and say "It'll separate the kids from the big kids!" but it's really just not that huge of a deal. All you have to do is dive in, it'll seem like nothing in no time. I mean sure, we'll still see some awful things in the troubleshooting thread, but that happens now.
The only thing I find more difficult with SMD is that I prefer to work one value at a time. It's a bit tedious to dump out several different values on the bench and keep up with which one is which. (the seem to always land with the marking side down, and some have no marking at all)
I think the biggest issue overall with the DIY pedal scene would be troubleshooting, since we may or may not be able to spot incorrect component values from a photo.
Anyone learning about electronics today (I don't mean on pedal forums) will see SMD as the norm and through-hole as a bygone. Eventually we will have to catch up, or pay the premium for what (believe it or not) is slowly becoming "vintage" components.